Year 2012: End of the World
Critically examining the "End of the World"
Top 5 2012 Scams and/or Scammers
Mar 14th
There are still people trapped by debris in Japan and snake oil salesmen are already lining up to claim this tragedy is proof for whatever brand of crazy they happen to be selling. This all too normal, all too natural tragedy is being cited as the beginning of the end by more than one group of people who have found a way to make their money off the end of the world. So we’re going to take a time to look at the ravenous ghouls who are all to willing to cash in on people’s fear and panic. With that said, let’s look at 5 of the biggest lies, or liars, trying to cash in on Dec 21, 2012.
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Patrick Geryl is the author of a number of books where he claims to explain the “impending disaster” using the “ancient secrets” of the Egyptians and Annunaki. Of course, this is utter bullshit. He’s selling books like they were iPods and using the profits to invest in a compound in Spain for himself and his followers. Or more likely, himself when Dec 22, 2012 rolls around and we’re all still here. He can just say “oops, must have been wrong” and retire to his mountainous Spanish villa. Poor guy.
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Nancy Lieder first gained notoriety when she declared that an alien intelligence from the Zeta Reticuli cluster had warned her of impending disaster for all of Earth. First, it was the Hale-Bopp comet hiding something terrible. Then it was the impending arrival of Planet X in 2003. When Planet X did not arrive, it took virtually no time at all for Ms Lieder to change the arrival date for Armageddon to one which already had some footing in the popular consciousness, the “end” of the Maya(n) calendar, 2012. I imagine once Dec 22nd arrives, she’ll just pick a new date for our doom, and continue to operate her website and sell her books until the day she dies, or the world ends. Guess which one I’d bet on happening first.
The Maya(n) Calendar is obviously an inanimate object (in the same way the Gregorian calendar is an “object.”). It can not control who claims it as evidence for their own particular theory of doom and profit. Be it Patrick Geryl, Nancy Lieder, or any number of random people on Youtube, more and more people are pointing to this amazing act of time keeping and astronomy as some kind of monster just waiting for the opportunity to bring ruin to us all. But that kind of thinking is based entirely on a flawed understanding of the Maya(n) culture, and their calendar. There are a number of artifacts that include dates pointing to the next “cycle,” which is to say, the Maya(n) did not think their calender “ended” on Dec 21, 2012.-
Image by NuclearVacuum
Planetary Alignment and/or Galactic Alignment, much like the Maya(n) calendar are both ideas that have been seized upon by multiple groups and multiple theories. These alignment claims usually assert that a rare astronomical event will occur that will imperil the Earth. Essentially there is nothing to them. NASA and the astronomy community at large point out that the described alignments either will not occur, or happen all the time over and over again. In short, there’s nothing to any claims of any kind of alignment of celestial bodies.
Prophecies, both biblical and those of people like Nostradamus, are also frequently cited by various 2012 theorists as proof of their theory. Their adherents will work feverishly to associate any real world event or tragedy with their prophecy of choice in an attempt to legitimize their own beliefs. Ultimately though, prophecies are easily fulfilled when one looks back on them from the future and has the luxury of including, or excluding, events for the sake of demonstrating the veracity of the prophecy. Nostradamus did not make any 2012 prophecy. Neither did the Maya(n) people or the Bible, actually. In fact, it’s hard to find a legitimate “2012 prophecy” that’s more than 20 or 30 years old.
There is no reason to worry about 2012. We have enough problems with managing our limited resources as is. Don’t be fooled by any of these lies, or the liars that use them. You have more important things to be concerned about.
The Japanese Earthquake: Real worries to consider
Mar 14th
It seems like everybody these days is talking about the earthquake in Japan, and with good reason. This was one of the largest earthquakes to be recorded in the area and its impact has been anything but minor. Not only was there damage from the initial seismic disturbance, but the following tsunami impacted coastal regions half way around the globe while devastating those closer to the epicenter.
There are all too many people crawling out of the woodwork to use this tragedy as proof of their own preferred “End of the World” scenario, and the worst part of such behavior is that it takes away precious energy that could be devoted to the real problems and questions that the Japanese earthquake has posed.
- People are in danger, and need help. While parts of Japan which were on the opposite side of the island, or inland, may be mostly intact, coastlines were ravaged and vital infrastructure has been compromised. Nuclear reactors are offline and countless people are without electricity. Rescue crews are still working constantly to dig through the rubble and debris for both victims and survivors. If you want to help, you can donate to the International Red Cross/Red Crescent here.
- Why is our ability to predict these events non-existent? It is no surprise to us anymore what causes earthquakes. When the energy stored along a fault line between tectonic plates exceeds a certain threshold, the plates grind and stutter against each other causing earthquakes and tsunamis. I understand that we have only had a standardized method of measuring these events for less than 100 years, but I personally can not help but ask if a few hundred million dollars spent on understanding our planet might have been better spent than an equivalent investment in bombs, or banker bailouts.
- How safe is nuclear energy, really? I will not deny being concerned about energy issues in general, and peak oil in particular. Nuclear energy has recently started regaining momentum as a possible solution since it was almost completely abandoned in the US after Three Mile Island. While there is plenty to fear from a meltdown, I get worried just trying to figure out what we’re supposed to do with the waste. I more than recognize the need to find sustainable energy, and quickly, but nuclear power is not a real solution to the problem.
We can learn a lot from the earthquake in Japan. We can face down serious questions about our energy. We can recognize that as much as we have learned in the last 100 years, we still have so much more to discover. Most importantly, we can learn that we are a durable and compassionate people capable of overcoming great adversity with the assistance of our fellow human beings.
Patrick Geryl – Mr 2012 or Mr Crazy?
Feb 2nd
In his book The Orion Prophecy, Patrick Geryl, sometimes called “Mr 2012″ claims to understand secret information about the process of geomagnetic reversal. Essentialy Mr Geryl asserts that bombardment by the sun will lead to an instant change in the polarization of the magnetic field, thus causing apocalyptic havoc on the planet. While it is true that the magnetic field reverses, the tidal waves and earthquakes he insists will coincide with the event are fantastic in nature. The truth is that the Earth’s magnetic field has reversed dozens of times, including several times in humanity’s past.
Not only does he seem to be anticipating earthquakes and tidal waves along with the magnetic reversal, he asserts that entire continents will shift hundreds of kilometers almost instantly. If any of this is sounding like science fiction, or a recent Roland Emmerich Hollywood Blockbuster, I would not be surprised. The hyperbole used in his text is not uncommon, there are any number of gurus willing to claim that they have “secret insight” of “esoteric knowledge” in the name of turning a profit. The problem arises that when what should be entertainment at the least, and theory at the most, is espoused as irrefutable truth is the very real panic and fear that it can instill in people who do not have a background in geology, physics, or history.
That being said, if you do want to take a brief walk through crazy town to see first hand what profiteering hysteria looks like, you can find The Orion Prophecy by Mr Geryl on Amazon.
Mayans predictions that have come true to back up the 2012 theory?
May 29th
The following is a question being asked on Yahoo Answers. Both the questions and answers given do not reflect the view of our website.
Question:
Can anyone tell me some? I am neither sceptic or believer about 2012, but I want some validity to what I keep reading everywhere about the Mayans accurate predictions.So can anyone tell me some of these?
Our Response
I’m not going to answer this on Yahoo its self, but if you too are curious about the answer to this, it’s simple. No, nobody can tell you any Maya(n) predictions that have come true. Why not? Because there weren’t even any predictions, let alone accurate, or inaccurate, predictions for that matter. The Maya(n) calendar is a complicated time keeping system, and the Long Form Count measures truly massive amounts of time (compared to say our contemporary Gregorian calendar) but it is not a prediction. The Maya(n) people did not make any predictions about “what might happen” when the current cycle ends. If anything is impressive, it is the ability the Maya(n) people had to determine when the equinoxes would occur with such precision.
The real problem with this question is that it is already presuming that the claims of “Maya(n) prophecies coming true” is in its self true. You can’t have people tell you prophecies that have come true when THERE ARE NO PROPHECIES AT ALL.
So, in short. There are no Maya(n) predictions that have come true to back up 2012 theory. There is nothing scientific, or even accurately historic, to “confirm” any of the crazy 2012 theories that are circulating today. – Carl
The Problem with Prophecy
Jul 22nd
Doomsday prophecies are nothing new. Neither is a widespread desire to believe them. But in the end, they’re meaningless. The thing that most people fail to realize about “prophecy” is that it is ultimately open to interpretation. If an individual wants to believe a prophecy is true, whether as reinforcement for their religious world view, because they’re superstitious, or simply because the idea of a Universe in which they might actually be accountable for their actions is truly terrifying, it is a relatively simple matter to interpret specific lines as being relevant or in reference to actual historical events. The fact that the link between the event and the prophecy exists only in their mind is all too easy for them to dismiss.
Nostradamus is famous, or infamous, for a plethora of prophecies he wrote in his life time. He has been credited with predicting World War 2, the Atomic Bomb, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001, and more, but the truth is none of these things are actually explicitly expressed in his own words. Rather, he uses vague poetic images which people hundreds of years later have decided allude to events that transpired between the time of Nostradamus and their present time. This is like seeing a television with no signal, cluttered with snow, then suddenly seeing the image of a sailboat after somebody else tells you it is there. It is all to easy to fit the random elements into a pattern when you have a pattern you want or expect to see.
This same process holds true with “biblical prophecy.” Most “biblical prophecy” as espoused by the “Rapture Ready” is a crude hack job of biblical texts that has as much reason and consistency as William S Burrough’s “cut up” technique of writing. That is to say, they’ll take a few lines from one book, a few lines from another, toss them in a blender, set it to puree, and then pour out the sauce and go “literal interpretation of the ineffable word of God” despite the fact that for it to be the “literal interpretation of the ineffable word of God” it would a) have to be true for the present time, which would b) make it utterly meaningless and insensible for the 2000 some odd year history of Christianity. I have a hard time seeing how something “ineffable” can be right for the last 20 years, and wrong for the 2000 years proceeding it. That seems like a pretty huge and glaring error.
At the end of the day, the value of prophecy to those that believe in it is the concept that things are preordained. That they are not accountable, or for that matter, even capable of affecting the world in which they live or it’s future. It is in short a “bury your head in the sand” card. If everything has already been foretold, why make an effort to change it? This is why prophecy, despite being utterly bogus, is all too dangerous. If people at large do not make an effort to create positive change, to push for progressive reform that safeguards the environment while elevating the living conditions of human beings, then nothing will change. The status quo is not our friend. While what we know may be comfortable, it is anything but safe.
The Maya(n) 2012 Prophecy, the Mesoamerican Long Count, and Why People Are So Confused
Jul 26th
If you’re wondering why the “n” in Mayan is in parenthesis in the title, it’s because it should in fact be Maya, but media more typically uses the popular, but incorrect, “Mayan.” This is a relatively small mix up compared to all of the excitement about a supposed “Mayan Prophecy” for world shaking events of some kind in December of 2012. There’s debate as to which exact day it supposedly occurs on, but the two most common interpretations are the 21st and 23rd.
There are some good reasons for the discrepancy of when the Maya(n) calendar supposedly ends that have to do with determining where it starts. While the Mayan calendar is very good at measuring days, the start point, or day one, of the calendar is not universally agreed upon. This is why you have disagreements on where it ends, they purport that it has a specific number of days (1,872,000, as the end is supposedly the “end” of our current period, the 13th b’ak’tun.) so depending on which exact start date they choose, they get a slight different end date. By and large we have managed to get a relatively accurate correspondence with our modern calendar thanks to historical documents during Europe’s conquest of the America’s.
The thing is, the calendar does not actually end with the 13th ba’k’tun. Specifically, the Temple of Inscriptions in Palneque contains references to a date that would correspond with October of 4772. The Mayans believed there was a cycle that predated the current one they lived in(and we’re living in it too). It is faulty reasoning at best, and crass arrogance and disrespect at worse, to suppose they would not expect there to be another one. In short, while a cycle of the long count Maya calendar is 13 b’ak’tuns, which is ending in Dec of 2012, that does not mean the world ends with the cycle. Quite the contrary, it is a milestone achievement.
The argument that the end of the world will occur when the Mayan calendar’s current cycle does is the equivalent of seeing a 2009-2010 calendar and assuming that the whole world is going to end on Dec 31st, 2010. Most people would quickly point out the absurdity of that. We make calendars annually. The calendar ending does not mean the world does. The fact that there are far fewer dates recorded by the Maya for the next cycle compared to our own is simply a question of distance. You would be hard pressed to find a publisher making calendars for the year 2100, or even 2020, at this point, but we could easily calculate a future date with our calendar system. If one was to set a long term goal or perhaps an elaborate fantasy in a far flung future, they could do so simply. Nobody can see the future, but we can recognize and predict patterns fairly well as a species. Considering that people have been “foretelling the End of the World” since man discovered fire for some reason or another, and they have all been wrong, there is no justification in believing the hype that claims this impressive feat of time keeping has any kind of life and death significance. No, things that have life and death significance are for more subtle, widespread, and all too common.
It is time to take action, be heard.
Aug 3rd
It is evident in my articles that while I have no fear of a foretold apocalypse in the year 2012 I am genuinely concerned for the future of the human species. Our planet is durable, having survived multiple mass extinction events in the past (including some that cycle with apparently clockwork precision every 27 million years, but do not worry, we still have 16 million years before the next one in this cycle should occur) it is far more likely that humanity will be wiped out than the entire planet. As the fictional Ian Malcolm says, “Life Finds a Way.”
That does not however give me much solace. Our world is rampant with corruption, poor policy, and ignorance, putting all of us on a dangerous precipice. It is essential that we collectively demand more from our leadership, locally, nationally, internationally, and privately. It is only by making our voices heard that we can hope to sway policy makers to take a long term view of our place in this world and the cosmos. With that idea in mind, I have decided to try and compile information on how to contact your local government leaders. As we are based in the USA, the information we were most easily able to compile will be for the USA. However, we will try to provide information where possible for international visitors so they too can take up the cause with their own leaders. If you have useful information in this regard that we were unfortunately able to track down on our own, please, add it to the comments. Hopefully at some point in the future we can compile a more up-to-date resource list than what we have been able to put together so far.
So to start off with, here’s some useful links for our US visitors.
Find your Federal House Representative
Both of these links will provide you with contact information for your federal legislator. These people are supposed to be your representative in the government, so make sure they know what your ideas are so they can represent them accordingly.
Vote Smart is also an excellent resource for US citizens as it will not only list your current Federal congress people, it will list all of your local elected officials as well as candidates. While it seems to be lacking direct contact information, it does give you their names which is an excellent place to start. Most, if not all, state legislatures have some method of contacting your local official through their websites these days. While some may not make it as easy as entering a zip code and being given contact information for your official, by using the information from Vote Smart you can easily identify your district and the name of your official to make contacting them that much easier.
This link will help you locate your Parliament Member if you’re from the UK.
And this one has the information for the European Parliament (note: the link is to the English version of their page as that is the language we use here on the site)
And here’s a link to the website of the Australian Parliament
While we would like to be able to provide comprehensive information for everybody in the world, such an undertaking would require a whole website of it’s own (and of course, there are still some countries that are not democracies, representative or otherwise). Regardless of whether we were able to provide information for you specifically, we would encourage you to do the necessary research and take the required steps to make your voice heard and help drive our leaders to pursue policies that will benefit both our species, and our planet.
The Nemesis Star is Not Out to Get Us
Jul 28th
If I had a nickel for a every theory about how the world is going to end in 2012, I would be sipping margaritas on a beach somewhere right now. I have not had the time to break down the convoluted logic that has lumped the Nemesis star into the Planet X theory or what they have to do with 2012. By all accounts the answer is that they are entirely unrelated except to those who wish to sell you a book explaining their esoteric connections. The really important word in that sentence? Sell.
I have however found this report which analyzes a theoretical connection between the “Nemesis” star and a cyclical pattern of mass extinctions that seems to occur roughly every 27 million years. How this is tied into 2012 I cannot imagine as it is widely agreed upon that if this cycle does occur again, it is not due for another 16 million years. If we as a species cannot find a way to spread beyond the confines of Earth to a “safe” location in 16 million years, well, we deserve that extinction.
That report is pretty darn technical, so to break it down, the researchers have ruled out the possibility of the Nemesis star as the cause of the cyclical extinctions because it is too regular. You see, due to the distance between our planet and the Nemesis star, if some kind of energy was being emitted from it that caused those extinctions, the number of gravitational fields and celestial bodies that would effect whatever might be transmitted would result in the cycle being more erratic than it actually is. That is right, the cycle is too reliable to be caused by a celestial body as distant from us as the Nemesis Star.
Image by NuclearVacuum
The Nemesis Star has lately been tangled up in the theories of “Planet X” or “Nibiru” which assert that a planet or nearly planet sized celestial body will collide or nearly collide with Earth causing a polar shift. If anything, I think this is an excellent example of how these various scenarios and theories tend to bleed together in the statements of those who are trying to assert their truth. The theory began with Nancy Lieder of Montana who asserted that she had received information from aliens of dire importance. It seems she initially argued that the Hale-Bopp comet was a false cover for an impending calamity. Later she would cite 2003 as the year of Earth’s inevitable doom. Now apparently the date has shifted to 2012 to coincide with the end of the Mayan calendar’s current cycle which has been embraced by pseudo-scientists, new age crazies, and countless others as the new “hip” date to predict the end of the world. Frankly, the idea that a celestial body 4 times the size of the planet Earth could be kept secret is patently absurd. Between the communication systems available today, the number of amateur astronomers, and the sad state of international political relations, an object like that would certainly be common knowledge.
If you’re thinking that perhaps there is a secret “Ark” program like in 2012, well, that wouldn’t work either. If a mass that size collided with our planet it would not be feasible to maintain the resources to support the population of elitists and specialists for the amount of time required for Earth to become hospitable to human life after such an impact. Essentially, the long running hysteria people have had about an impending Apocalypse continues today, and the conspiracy theorists that cite Planet X, Nibiru, and the Nemesis Star as the cause are far more concerned with reinforcing their own preferred world view than actually looking at the data and facts. Either that, or they’re just looking at their bank accounts.
Capped, Really?
Aug 6th
Well, it’s been a while since I last commented on the situation in the Gulf so it is probably well past time for an update. As of a few weeks ago there is a temporary cap that seems to have managed to stop the oil gusher. I did not make a joyous post right away because after BP’s previous efforts, I thought a “wait and see” position would be prudent. There was initially some concern that the cap might cause the seabed to destabilize or that there might have been a second leak, but supposedly that was not the case. At least, anything that was detected was “not consequential.” While I wont say there is a conspiracy, I find myself wondering how reliable BP’s reports to Thad Allen actually are, what with their assurances that they had plans to handle situations just like this one when they got permission to begin drilling.
Then there was the tropical storm Bonnie, the second tropical weather event to hit the gulf since the leak began on April 20th. Essentially this caused a delay of a few days in that the support fleet had to pack up all their pipes and sail away, until they decided the weather wasn’t really that bad. Still, between the tear down, the move, and then the reassembly of the pipes the plug process was delayed for several days.
The good news is that with the relief well essentially completed BP launched the first half of their plan to finally plug the well by injecting mud into the cap. (As of this writing the top injection is “done” and seems to have worked.) Once the relief well is completed they intend to inject a mud and concrete mixture into the broken well head from beneath the surface to finally put an end to this gusher, presumably once and for all. The relief well for the second injection is expected to be completed in less than two weeks at this point.
It is pretty clear that a lot of people are just hoping this thing will go away, so it is no surprise that many are beginning to ask where all of this leaked oil has gone. BP’s new chief executive Bob Dudley was claiming the leak was over as early as July 27th, and discussed scaling back clean up efforts. The scale back is apparently sensible, as most reports seem to indicate that the effort to keep the oil from reaching shore, (or the surface of the ocean for that matter) were for the most part effective. This is of course due to the unprecedented use of the dispersant Corexit. While Corexit is EPA approved, there have been findings of tiny droplets of oil making their way into the Gulf food chain thanks to Corexit’s efficiency at breaking down the black blobs into essentially too small to see particles. These particles actually have an easier time making it into the food chain.
At this point, of course, the threat that this combination might have on the ecology is being vastly downplayed, and some even claim that due to the rich ecosystem of the Gulf, oil is not something to be all that concerned about. Couple that with the proclamation that roughly 75% of the oil has been “cleaned” and I would be surprised if this was still a news story by September. Granted, it’s also just come out that apparently the estimated rate of the leak was still too low and this is in fact the largest off shore oil spill in global history.
But everything will be all right, I’m sure. The off shore drilling ban is going to be lifted sooner than anticipated, the judge who ruled on the case sees no conflict of interest between his own oil and gas investments and ruling on off shore drilling, and local politicians are hoping the Obamas will go swimming in the Gulf when they come down for a vacation! I mean, I’m sure this sort of thing will never happen again, it is not like we’re going to be letting the people responsible collect all the evidence or anything.
Oh, and in case you somehow missed it, there was also an oil spill in China, an oil spill in Michigan, a second blown oil head in Louisiana, and an Alaskan pipe line all happened while this was going on. The truth is that our own burn now, pay later attitude as a society is far more dangerous than any curse that the Maya(n) people never made in the first place. As long as we remain silent, nothing will change.
Timewave Zero, Terence McKenna, and 2012
Aug 23rd
Terence McKenna’s Timewave Zero theory is one of many popular theories about what might possibly occur on 12 21, 2012. Granted, the fact that he may have tailored his date to coincide with the end of the Maya(n) calendar’s current cycle is a pretty reasonable explanation as to why this theory is becoming widely accepted.
Essentially Timewave Zero is based on the results of a computer program that McKenna developed as part of his formulation of Novelty Theory. Essentially McKenna posits that the amount of “novelty” occurring in the Universe will increase or decrease in relation to time. According to this theory the Universe is designed to both increase and decrease Novelty, or newness. He posits that this newness can be modeled as a wave that indicates when, if not where, Novelty will increase or decrease. This model is supposedly capable of tracking significant events in history, though considering it’s a cosmological model, one has to wonder what kind of event actually has historical significance from a cosmological viewpoint.
This model apparently has an asymptote in 2012, or as McKenna called it a “Singularity of Novelty.” While reports vary as to whether or not the model initially coincided with the 12 21 2012 end date of the Maya(n) calendar cycle, by the time McKenna died this was the “official” time that theorized singularity would occur. But what would a Singularity of Novelty actually entail?
That is a hard question to answer, as the theory itself essentially claims that such an event would involve everything possible happening all at once. If his theory is accurate the world as we know it, hell the Universe as we know it, would be radically and fundamentally altered. But there is good news, according to Timewave Zero, the period after would be an “Age of Peace.” Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that if such a cosmic shift did occur that anybody would be particularly bothered by it. Everything, existence itself, would be fundamentally changed by the event. Concerns about anarchistic post-apocalyptic survival would not only be unnecessary but irrelevant.
Terence McKenna was a brilliant man, but it is important to remember that much of his Novelty Theory was based on his own experimentation with psychedelic substances such as psilocybin mushrooms. Not to discount the possibility that altered states of consciousness might lead to better understandings of the Universe and how we fit into them, it is important to remember that such states can just as easily lead people into believing that they are being chased by mythic beings or speaking to God. (McKenna himself felt that he was able to hear the voice of Logos, an essentially benevolent God like entity while under the influence of these substances, who in fact helped him develop his Novelty Theory.)
The cynic in me has a hard time believing that the ideas proposed by the Timewave Zero theory will come to pass. However, even if they do, there does not seem to be any way to avoid the consequences, or even a reason to worry much about what they will be. On the other hand, if Timewave Zero is not accurate, there are plenty of dangers to the human species from both natural and man made events that we must all prepare for. If Timewave Zero does not deliver an Age of Peace, it is up to all of us to usher in such a time of prosperity ourselves.
Self Sufficient Energy Really Matters
Mar 8th
Last summer was full of reminders about the real price of energy in our world. Not just the cost as measured in dollar amounts, but the human and environmental costs as well. The need to shift to energy sources that are not derived from traditional carbon fuels like oil and coal continues to grow more urgent. This need for new energy sources exists even without concern about the year 2012.
While we do not generally accept that any of the theories that predict calamity on Dec 21 2012 are anything to worry about, that does not change the fact that some people are genuinely afraid of what the future holds. In a world ravaged by the types of cataclysmic events being predicted, it is safe to assume that the electrical grid and gas stations we have all come to rely on to power our homes and vehicles will simply not exist. The truth is that even without these dire events, the infrastructure our society depends on for delivering power is still crumbling.
Development of alternative energy sources, ranging from bio-fuels to wind farms, and solar power plants have all lagged. The main opposition to these energy sources is not in fact a logistical one. These technologies have been viable for well over two decades, but widespread adoption has still not become a major factor. Some argue that implementing these technologies on a large scale would be cost prohibitive, but that fails to take into account the economics of scale. If we were working to manufacture large numbers of wind turbines or solar cells, the costs for the components of these machines would begin to fall as well.
The problem is that for many people it is easier, or more profitable, to maintain the status quo. I am personally inclined to believe this stems from the myopic vision we as a species have because of our life spans. Considering the consequences of any given choice a few days in advance can be problematic, let alone taking a long view towards possible consequences that are decades, or centuries down the road. Why worry about whether “peak oil” has actually been met or not when right now you can easily fill your car at the local gas station? I do not even want to get into how the “profit motive” is almost certainly blinding the Tony Hayward’s of the world from worrying about the long term impact of the decisions they make as the heads of huge energy corporations like BP.
On the plus side, it is easier now than ever for people to start working towards their own energy independence. There are do it yourself kits available on how to build your own solar cells, or windmills. There are products that consumers can purchase or use that allow them to have more control over the amount of energy they are using. If you want to make sure your family is secure in the future, for generations, the time to start energy conserving habits and finding stable, renewable energy sources is now.
Water water, everywhere…
Jan 24th
It is a well known fact that three quarters of the Earth’s surface is water. What is not well known is just how little of that water is actually fit for human consumption. Thanks to the wonders of modern plumbing, or the plethora of bottled waters available for purchase, most people in industrialized nations have come to take potable water for granted. In fact, less than 1% of the planet’s water is clean enough for healthy human consumption. In fact, a number of major US cities are already facing down water shortages even without the possibility of impending threat.
Take into account that the human body is also roughly 70% water and that it is essential for metabolizing nutrients as well as breaking up and removing waste, and the danger of not being able to get clean water quickly becomes very alarming. Water always tops the list of supplies needed for relief efforts after hurricanes, earthquakes, or other natural disasters that can decimate a community’s infrastructure. There is good reason for that.
If there was to be a Earth shattering event like those predicted by Patrick Geryl, or Nancy Leider, you can rest assured that access to clean water would be one of the first things you would need to secure for the health of you and your family. But the wild prognostications of people like this are not the real threat to the drinking water supply. The infrastructure of the United States water supplies is decades old and well past time for replacement. Water and sewage mains are breaking down from disrepair and governments, both local and Federal, are loath to spend the kind of money it takes to replace these systems until it is too late, that is to say, until they’ve already broken.
These breaks can result in homes without water, crumbling streets, and ultimately cost more money to repair than they would have to just refit before they failed. Unfortunately, finding politicians willing to make hard choices now for the sake of the long term picture is increasingly difficult when more and more of their energy is focused on keeping the electorate happy right now. Tomorrow’s problems belong to a nebulous future, while keeping your present day poll numbers up is essential to maintaining your office. The fact that this kind of short sighted policy is ultimately detrimental to the community is a fact that is lost on both the elected officials, and the voters, who are more concerned about today than they are about ten years from now. It is essentially a collective decision to put off the oil change in the car because the budget is tight, so long as the motor keeps running. But eventually the head gasket will blow.
On the plus side, it is possible for individuals to build their own water filtration systems. (Sorry, Brita, you might work on tap water, but you wont work on contaminated water) There are also plenty of methods to both test and purify your water as well. In the mean time, it’s important for people to remember that water might be everywhere, but we can drink very very little of it, and to take steps to conserve as much drinking water as we can, while we can.
Where did all of that oil go?
Mar 9th
I was quite distressed last year about the BP oil spill. I honestly had a hard time bringing myself to write about it at the time. But after months, they managed to get the temporary cap in place, and suddenly the story was dead. Nobody wanted to talk about the underwater oil plume, or the “sniff tests” being used to determine if Gulf coast seafood was safe or not. The beaches were clean, the well had stopped leaking, the world moved on. The only problem is that if one looks at the amount of oil spilled (4.9 million barrels), and the amount captured (approx 600,000 barrels), and then makes wild guesses as to how much was burned, the rather significant remaining difference can only be one place. Still in the ocean.
Granted, the oil that remains in the ocean is probably not clumped together in obvious black clouds any more. BP dumped more dispersants than ever used before into the Gulf. The result being that large amounts of the oil were broken down into smaller clumps that quickly disappeared into the Gulf ecosystem. So, what kind of impact has this cocktail of chemicals and hubris had on the Gulf?
Well, for one, it is apparently killing dolphins. Yes, those ever lovable sea mammals have been experiencing an increase in both adult and infant mortality. At the earliest part of birthing season, baby dolphins were washing up dead at a frequency nine times the usual. While there will be those who point out that testing hasn’t confirmed the dolphins were poisoned by oil or Corexit, they are apologists and liars. Only a fool could deny that the Gulf’s ecosystem has been significantly altered, and that alteration is endangering the sea life that call it home.
Worse than that though, the oil is making it’s way into people’s blood. New studies have found hydrocarbons in the blood of gulf coast residents. These chemicals are making their way into people by air, water, and most frighteningly, food. The studies make it clear that the sniff tests were not enough, and that gulf seafood is capable of containing both oil by products, and Corexit, without any visible or “sniffable” indicators. Granted, the government agencies are trying to refute this study, but still by their own words recommend you “get your fish from a reputable source. Don’t catch it your self.” Not exactly a glowing endorsement. The reality is that the economy of the Gulf is so dependent on the sea food in the Gulf that people are afraid to openly discuss possible problems with it. The economy is in recession and millions of people make their living working as commercial fisherman, or guides for fishing tourists. To openly admit the Gulf has been contaminated would devastate the Gulf region’s economy.
Essentially the Gulf is damned either way, be it poison or poverty. Meanwhile the people at BP who made the decisions that led to this calamity, well, they’re doing fine.
Michael Ruppert Warns About Collapse
Mar 10th
Michael Ruppert is a smart man. Unlike most of our other “Doomsayers” Ruppert does not tie his concerns to arbitrary dates or ancient calendars. He does however tie them to a very specific event. He may not be able to determine exactly when that event will occur, but he’s got a lot of good reasons to think it will be soon. What Michael Ruppert is so worried about is peak oil, and you should be worried too.
Ruppert is an author and investigative journalist with several books
Here’s the trailer for his 2009 movie Collaspe.
This movie is terrifying, not because the information came from an alien intelligence, or because the calamity it discusses is some event out of ancient prophecy. Rather, what makes this film so frightening is its utter lack of such nonsense. It deals with nothing but facts as it analyzes some of the more unpleasant truths that haunt our modern energy addicted society. Honestly by the time I got to the end of this movie I was left wonder “what’s the point in caring?” While the information was certainly a “downer” I realized that wallowing in self pity is useless. Even if efforts to protect my self and my family are futile, I would rather try than do nothing. I may not be faster than that bear, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to be the slowest camper.
If you’re a member of Amazon Prime, you can watch the film for free
Peak Oil: What should really frighten you
Mar 10th
Image Courtesy: Flcelloguy at Wikipedia
Forget about Nibiru, Nostradamus, or the Maya(n) calendar ending on Dec 21 2012. None of those things is worth worrying about. Peak oil on the other hand should have you tossing and turning in your sheets with nightmarish visions of what might befall you, your children, your grandchildren, even the human race as a whole.
While experts have been debating for years and years about when peak oil might actually occur, the discussion will soon come to an end. At this point even Lloyd’s of London, who didn’t want to admit peak oil was a serious concern acknowledged in July that peak oil is no myth and might be here before we know it.
What exactly is peak oil? Well, peak oil will be the time when the global production capacity of oil reaches its all time high. That is not to say that new wells can not be drilled as old ones dry up. But that never again will there be as many wells able to produce as much at once. Essentially once peak oil has been reached, there will be less and less of it left everyday after until it is all gone.
A constantly dwindling supply of oil will have far more impact than just rising prices at the gas station though, Since oil became a viable fuel source in the early 20th century more and more of it was used to create our current way of life. The massive population explosion around the entire planet in the last century was literally fueled by oil. Oil is used in everything from rubber, to plastic, to pesticides. We use oil powered vehicles to harvest and transport crops to grocery stores. Oil is used to create sterile medical supplies like gloves and tool coverings. In short, the energy that supports six, almost seven billion people on this planet almost all comes from oil.
Image by Bryan Tong Minh
As time passes there will be less oil for things like plastic soda bottles. Gas will be rationed in order to make sure there is fuel to try and operate governments, armies, farm vehicles. The crops that will be harvested will be smaller due to insects and pest damage., There will be fewer and fewer markets within transportation range. Urban areas which rely on regular deliveries of food stuffs may face food shortages and eventual rioting as deliveries slow down and finally stop.
In short, if our society cannot break its addiction to oil we as a species are going to be facing some very very hard times. Mass famine, black outs, riots, wars, disease, it will be as if Pandora’s box was opened. Of course, there are ways to break your family’s reliance to this crude fossil fuel. By adopting conservation techniques, investing in alternative energy sources like windmills or solar cells, and developing a grocery garden that does not rely on petrochemical based pesticides or fertilizers you can insulate your family from the worst of the coming fire.
Is the Japan Earthquake the beginning of the End?
Mar 13th
With the devastating earthquake, and subsequent tsunami that affected Japan and other Pacific nations this weekend some people are claiming that this is a sign that the planet is doomed, the clock is ticking, and that on Dec 21, 2012 the world as we know it will end. Frankly, this is utter bullshit. That is not to say that everybody who says it is willfully misleading others or fabricating the truth. Quite the contrary, it is to be very honest about your beliefs, very sincere, and still believe something that is categorically wrong. Like the idea that this earthquake has anything to do with any ideas about 2012.
This natural disaster was devastating without a doubt. The seismic activity has endangered homes, offices, business, nuclear power planets, you get the picture. An 8.9 earthquake is quite powerful and definitely capable of “shaking things up as it were.” To add insult to proverbial injury, the seismic activity caused a tsunami that created problems not just for Japan, but for coast lines all over the Western Pacific ocean.
As the days progress, rescue crews will work to the point of exhaustion and beyond attempting to help as many survivors as they possibly can. International charity organizations such as the Red Cross will be accepting donations for their efforts to bring food, water, medicine, and other basic provisions to those in the most need.
Once again, the people of Earth will be called upon to think of each other, to sacrifice something so that those in need may be provided for. This is not unusual, in fact, massive charity efforts frequently follow these kinds of disasters in the modern world, and with good reason. Our technology has brought all the people of this planet closer together than ever before. We are no longer ignorant of the suffering that may occur on the other side of the world, unless we choose to be.
For the most part however, we all see images like those coming out of Japan now, or those which came out of Haiti a little over a year ago, we are moved to do something, anything for our fellow human beings. While I often look at modern society and despair at the way we seem to be collectively oblivious to our own destructive nature, how many of us are willing to allow apathy and leisure dissuade us from pushing for positive change, it is, perhaps ironically, times like now when I am reminded of humanity’s nobility. Our ability, no our need to empathize, and share with those less fortunate gives me hope that maybe, just maybe, we can manage to survive our own actions. As for the theories about 2012, they may as well be bedtime stories about the boogie man.
2012, the Japanese Earthquake, and Basic Geology
Mar 14th
There are plenty of people trying to claim that the tragic Japanese earthquake is a sign of their own preferred End of the World scenario. You have people like Timothy Lahaye, “co author” of the Left Behind novels claiming that the earthquake was foretold in the bible. (Why didn’t you warn us? More importantly, why didn’t you try to warn Japan?) There are also people arguing that this is earthquake was triggered by solar flares, or is an early warning of massive polar shift. Of course we can not forget those who would say that the earthquake was caused by the “loosening of tectonic plates” prior to the arrival of Planet X.
The truth is that none of these things has anything at all to do with what is happening right now in Japan. What is happening right now in Japan is that people are suffering. People are dieing. Perhaps, most importantly, people are surviving, and people are working to help each other. Please, remember to take the time to do something to assist in the efforts of those heroes who are struggling right now to help those in need in Japan.
There is as it turns a very normal explanation for what seems like destruction on a mythic scale. It is geology. Japan is part of a global chain that surrounds the Pacific Ocean and is known as the “Ring of Fire.” This is a volatile region were tectonic plates are colliding and volcanoes are pushing magma from the Earth’s core to the surface. Seismic activity is common on the Ring of Fire. In fact, 90 percent of all earthquakes occur somewhere along this chain.
While those wishing to incite panic will point out that the intensity and frequency of earthquakes “seems to be getting worse and worse” they typically do not take into consideration how long we have been able to actually quantify earthquakes. The Richter scale wasn’t developed until 1935, and the now more accurate moment magnitude scale developed in the 1970s. While devices that could measure local seismic activity are quite old, the idea of a standard measurement for earthquakes and similar events is a new invention. To say that these disasters today are “far worse than ever before” is deliberately misleading. The accurate statement would be “this is the most activity we’ve recorded in the 85 some odd years we’ve bean measuring these things.” Which, when one assumes at the least, 6000 years of history, (or the more widely believed millions of years) is not saying very much at all.’
The Japanese earthquake is a tragedy. Feel free to do what you can to help those suffering there. But this was not foretold in the bible, it was not caused by a solar flare or another planet, and it does not mean the entire crust of the Earth is going to radically shift all at once. Don’t be bothered by such bedtime stories, there are real problems to worry about in this life.
What we should learn from the Gulf of Mexico Oil spill
Sep 13th
While the alleged Mayan Prophecy regarding 2012 is growing like wildfire in popular awareness there are far more serious threats that exist right now. When the mobile platform Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20th it was just the beginning of an event that will have significant impact on people’s everyday lives. For days the oil on the surface burned as emergency crews raced to try and contain as much of the oil as possible. But the trouble did not stop when the platform finally sank into the murky depths.
Thousands of barrels of oil and natural gas are presently escaping from the now unplugged well 5,000 ft below the surface. This crisis will not only have an impact on the Gulf coast environment, but on the global economy as well. Prices for oil are bound to increase as production is delayed indefinitely. At this point BP is hoping to have the well capped in the next week or two. If the past is any indication though, the leak may continue for another 6 weeks or more. The well is estimated to be leaking 1000 barrels of oil and natural gas per day. If it takes as long to contain this spell as it did to contain the Montara Well Head Platform leak in 2009 it is easily possible that more than 100,000 barrels of oil will spill into the waters of the Gulf.
While this is a small fraction of the planet’s capacity, it’s impact on future prices is still going to be felt. The US has a dwindling amount of domestic oil production and while this spill its self may not be that large (The US produces 5.4 million barrels per day) it will very likely have an impact on offshore drilling policy for years to come. This one incident alone may seem inconsequential, but when you look at a list of oil spills and eruptions you become aware of just how often tragedies like this actually occur. In fact, since 1980 Australia alone has had 20 significant off shore oil spills. That does not even begin to take into consideration events like the collision of the Exxon Valdez which resulted in 250000 barrels of oil ruining miles of pristine Alaskan shore line, killing wildlife and devastating the fishing economy and health of the local population.
While at it’s present rate it would take a full 8 months for the leak to match the devastating magnitude of the Valdez collision, the truth is that BP and the US are still not sure what to do with the current problem. Nobody expects the leak to go on for eight months, but nobody has ever had to face the challenges of sealing off an uncapped well at this depth before either. Currently they are trying a number of methods to stop the leaking ranging from activating an emergency seal (though at this point this is most likely not a viable option anymore) to actually building an underwater dome to help funnel the oil so it can be contained. The most permanent solution at this time is to drill another well, and use it to pump a chemical suppressant to the current leak and patch it.
Regardless of what solution eventually works, or how long it takes them to implement it, this is a reminder of what we should all really be afraid of. There is no reason to fear “celestial prophecies” and “End Times proclamations” when the truth is that commonplace accidents and the fallibility of human engineering have already placed our planet, and our population, on a precarious edge.
UPDATE
The initial estimate by BP for the rate of the leak of 1000 barrels per day is apparently grossly inaccurate. There is no firm number yet determined (it is easy to imagine the difficulty of “measuring” an oil leak 5000 ft below sea level) but guesses now seem to range from 5000 barrels a day all the way up to a potential million barrels per day. Remember that this spill will not only have a massive impact on the fishing industry (the price of Shrimp is about to skyrocket) but also the energy sector and even dish washing detergents. (Dawn dish washing detergent is a popular “dispersant” that is used when cleaning up oil spills. Some reports indicate that BP has purchased 1/3 of the planet’s current supply of dispersant agents to try and clean up this mess.) Also reports indicate one of the three leaking spots has been capped, however it does not seem to have slowed the over all rate of the leak at all.
The Lesson of Eyjafjallajokull
Aug 6th
Weeks ago the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull (the volcano in Iceland everybody was butchering the name of in the televised news) was international news. This slumbering volcano stirred and belched molten earth and ash into the skies. From there, winds and the jet stream spread this dangerous gaseous soup all over Europe, affecting weather patterns and international travel for days. It was almost impossible to get a flight in or out of Northern Europe at the time. Industry experts project the lost revenues caused by the initial eruption to be $1.7 billion or more. Some speculate it might have been bad enough to literally drive some European air carriers into bankruptcy.
But the eruption is not over. In recent days Ireland and Scotland have been struggling with another ash cloud which may soon, once again, influence larger segments of Europe. While some people might consider this a sign that “the Mayans were right” or as some kind of evidence of a foretold doomsday scenario unfolding before our eyes, I am confident in saying that is simply not true. What we are witnessing is a normal and natural geological process. The process by which the Earth’s mantle is replaced is well documented and easy to understand.
At fault lines and trenches, the crust of the Earth winds up being pushed down into the core. The deeper this material goes the more heat and pressure it is subjected to. Eventually this material is reduced into magma. Magma flows all around and through the planet in various concentrations and densities. Eventually, a local concentration of magma will reach a critical level and trigger a volcanic eruption. This is not a strange or mystical process. It does however seem to be basic geology that is somehow not learned during the course of most people’s elementary sciences.
There are volcanoes all over the world, both dormant and active. Unfortunately, a lack of funding has led to a woeful inability to monitor, track, and even understand the complicated systems involved in volcanic eruptions. It has been deemed more important to fund weapons systems than developing early warning capabilities that might, at the least, help us prepare for and work around volcanic eruptions. Do not think that such an investment would be fool hardy. Eyjafjallajokull is just a “normal” volcano and the impact it has had on Europe’s people and businesses is impossible to deny. The threat that ought to concern humanity lies in “super volcanoes.”
There are at present at least six known super volcanoes, three of them in North America alone. These volcanoes are so massive that if one were to erupt they would belch more than 240 cubic miles of ash, dirt, and magma into the sky. These are eruptions that are large enough to change weather patterns, block out the sun, and potentially even trigger new ice ages. There is currently no “real” way to “prepare” for the eruption of a super volcano. The best you can do is hope that they manage to release their pressure in smaller and less destructive ways (like geysers) than a full scale eruption.
The fact that we are so woefully unprepared to understand and predict, or possibly even prevent, catastrophic eruptions has nothing to do with it being “impossible.” It is instead the fault of people in positions of authority refusing to deal with such situations because it is considered a political liability with little to no reward. I cannot help but wonder what the people of New Orleans think about the decades of negligence on the part of local, state, and Federal officials to deal with the problem of their inadequate levies, preferring instead to “hope nothing bad would happen.”
May 21, 2011… the World is Ending in a Welcome Back Jesus Party! Not really…
May 20th
So by now I’m absolutely sure that basically everybody has heard the latest prognostication by frequent Rapture predictor Harold Camping. That is to say that he has, once again, adjusted his calculations to predict the date of Jesus’ return to Earth based on biblical prophecy and the notion that he can actually find data that allows him to accurately date much of anything from the biblical era. (Anybody who looks at how the Bible was compiled, or considers the immense challenge of historical record keeping in an era that is virtually pre-historical should already be laughing at Camping.)
This is not the first time Camping has made a prediction like this. He had originally predicted the Rapture would occur in September of 1994… we all know how that turned out. Which is to say, it didn’t, he was wrong, like so many before him, and so many after.
While Camping’s beliefs sound ludicrous to most, whether they self identify as Christian or not, that doesn’t stop them from receiving wide recognition, if not acceptance. Look at any social networking service, Twitter, Facebook, whatever, and I’d bet dollars to donuts that you’ll see at least one status update or tweet about the world ending tomorrow. (For those of you on the other side of the international dateline… sucks to be you, you have until “6 pm” so hold your loved ones close. Or start drawing up plans for how to work the neighborhood for the most phat lewt you can scavenge from your Raptured natives.) It’s big time news, even if it isn’t actually believed by many. And it shouldn’t be believed. Honestly, we should probably feel pity for those who do believe this kind of nonsense.
So come Sunday, when the world is still here, and we’re all still on it (save those of us who died from something other than Jesus beaming them up to have, do not pass dead) and we collectively wipe away the crumbs from our eyelashes, and look bleary eyed at the credit card bills, and mortgage payments, and cell phone bills that still sit, languidly, waiting for you to process them, because, hey, why spend the money if the world WAS ending? Maybe we’ll be wise enough to recognize that Patrick Geryl and Nancy Lieder are no more qualified, no more accurate, than Harold Camping has ever been.
I can only hope that one woefully obviously inaccurate doomsday prediction will bring a shot of cynicism to those so eager to believe in messages of dire import from beyond our own star system, or that the Egyptians somehow held the key for deciphering the Maya(n) calendar despite being separated by an ocean and a lack of vessels capable of navigating it. If I’m wrong, if Harold Camping is right, well, that’s okay too. I’ve already got my own lewt map drawn up. Besides, somebody will have to stick around to take care of my cat. She couldn’t make it on her own. Shame on anybody who is Raptured that also owns a pet. Shame.
