Critically examining the "End of the World"
Carl
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Posts by Carl
What we should learn from the Gulf of Mexico Oil spill
Sep 13th
While the alleged Mayan Prophecy regarding 2012 is growing like wildfire in popular awareness there are far more serious threats that exist right now. When the mobile platform Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20th it was just the beginning of an event that will have significant impact on people’s everyday lives. For days the oil on the surface burned as emergency crews raced to try and contain as much of the oil as possible. But the trouble did not stop when the platform finally sank into the murky depths.
Thousands of barrels of oil and natural gas are presently escaping from the now unplugged well 5,000 ft below the surface. This crisis will not only have an impact on the Gulf coast environment, but on the global economy as well. Prices for oil are bound to increase as production is delayed indefinitely. At this point BP is hoping to have the well capped in the next week or two. If the past is any indication though, the leak may continue for another 6 weeks or more. The well is estimated to be leaking 1000 barrels of oil and natural gas per day. If it takes as long to contain this spell as it did to contain the Montara Well Head Platform leak in 2009 it is easily possible that more than 100,000 barrels of oil will spill into the waters of the Gulf.
While this is a small fraction of the planet’s capacity, it’s impact on future prices is still going to be felt. The US has a dwindling amount of domestic oil production and while this spill its self may not be that large (The US produces 5.4 million barrels per day) it will very likely have an impact on offshore drilling policy for years to come. This one incident alone may seem inconsequential, but when you look at a list of oil spills and eruptions you become aware of just how often tragedies like this actually occur. In fact, since 1980 Australia alone has had 20 significant off shore oil spills. That does not even begin to take into consideration events like the collision of the Exxon Valdez which resulted in 250000 barrels of oil ruining miles of pristine Alaskan shore line, killing wildlife and devastating the fishing economy and health of the local population.
While at it’s present rate it would take a full 8 months for the leak to match the devastating magnitude of the Valdez collision, the truth is that BP and the US are still not sure what to do with the current problem. Nobody expects the leak to go on for eight months, but nobody has ever had to face the challenges of sealing off an uncapped well at this depth before either. Currently they are trying a number of methods to stop the leaking ranging from activating an emergency seal (though at this point this is most likely not a viable option anymore) to actually building an underwater dome to help funnel the oil so it can be contained. The most permanent solution at this time is to drill another well, and use it to pump a chemical suppressant to the current leak and patch it.
Regardless of what solution eventually works, or how long it takes them to implement it, this is a reminder of what we should all really be afraid of. There is no reason to fear “celestial prophecies” and “End Times proclamations” when the truth is that commonplace accidents and the fallibility of human engineering have already placed our planet, and our population, on a precarious edge.
UPDATE
The initial estimate by BP for the rate of the leak of 1000 barrels per day is apparently grossly inaccurate. There is no firm number yet determined (it is easy to imagine the difficulty of “measuring” an oil leak 5000 ft below sea level) but guesses now seem to range from 5000 barrels a day all the way up to a potential million barrels per day. Remember that this spill will not only have a massive impact on the fishing industry (the price of Shrimp is about to skyrocket) but also the energy sector and even dish washing detergents. (Dawn dish washing detergent is a popular “dispersant” that is used when cleaning up oil spills. Some reports indicate that BP has purchased 1/3 of the planet’s current supply of dispersant agents to try and clean up this mess.) Also reports indicate one of the three leaking spots has been capped, however it does not seem to have slowed the over all rate of the leak at all.
The Lesson of Eyjafjallajokull
Aug 6th
Weeks ago the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull (the volcano in Iceland everybody was butchering the name of in the televised news) was international news. This slumbering volcano stirred and belched molten earth and ash into the skies. From there, winds and the jet stream spread this dangerous gaseous soup all over Europe, affecting weather patterns and international travel for days. It was almost impossible to get a flight in or out of Northern Europe at the time. Industry experts project the lost revenues caused by the initial eruption to be $1.7 billion or more. Some speculate it might have been bad enough to literally drive some European air carriers into bankruptcy.
But the eruption is not over. In recent days Ireland and Scotland have been struggling with another ash cloud which may soon, once again, influence larger segments of Europe. While some people might consider this a sign that “the Mayans were right” or as some kind of evidence of a foretold doomsday scenario unfolding before our eyes, I am confident in saying that is simply not true. What we are witnessing is a normal and natural geological process. The process by which the Earth’s mantle is replaced is well documented and easy to understand.
At fault lines and trenches, the crust of the Earth winds up being pushed down into the core. The deeper this material goes the more heat and pressure it is subjected to. Eventually this material is reduced into magma. Magma flows all around and through the planet in various concentrations and densities. Eventually, a local concentration of magma will reach a critical level and trigger a volcanic eruption. This is not a strange or mystical process. It does however seem to be basic geology that is somehow not learned during the course of most people’s elementary sciences.
There are volcanoes all over the world, both dormant and active. Unfortunately, a lack of funding has led to a woeful inability to monitor, track, and even understand the complicated systems involved in volcanic eruptions. It has been deemed more important to fund weapons systems than developing early warning capabilities that might, at the least, help us prepare for and work around volcanic eruptions. Do not think that such an investment would be fool hardy. Eyjafjallajokull is just a “normal” volcano and the impact it has had on Europe’s people and businesses is impossible to deny. The threat that ought to concern humanity lies in “super volcanoes.”
There are at present at least six known super volcanoes, three of them in North America alone. These volcanoes are so massive that if one were to erupt they would belch more than 240 cubic miles of ash, dirt, and magma into the sky. These are eruptions that are large enough to change weather patterns, block out the sun, and potentially even trigger new ice ages. There is currently no “real” way to “prepare” for the eruption of a super volcano. The best you can do is hope that they manage to release their pressure in smaller and less destructive ways (like geysers) than a full scale eruption.
The fact that we are so woefully unprepared to understand and predict, or possibly even prevent, catastrophic eruptions has nothing to do with it being “impossible.” It is instead the fault of people in positions of authority refusing to deal with such situations because it is considered a political liability with little to no reward. I cannot help but wonder what the people of New Orleans think about the decades of negligence on the part of local, state, and Federal officials to deal with the problem of their inadequate levies, preferring instead to “hope nothing bad would happen.”
May 21, 2011… the World is Ending in a Welcome Back Jesus Party! Not really…
May 20th
So by now I’m absolutely sure that basically everybody has heard the latest prognostication by frequent Rapture predictor Harold Camping. That is to say that he has, once again, adjusted his calculations to predict the date of Jesus’ return to Earth based on biblical prophecy and the notion that he can actually find data that allows him to accurately date much of anything from the biblical era. (Anybody who looks at how the Bible was compiled, or considers the immense challenge of historical record keeping in an era that is virtually pre-historical should already be laughing at Camping.)
This is not the first time Camping has made a prediction like this. He had originally predicted the Rapture would occur in September of 1994… we all know how that turned out. Which is to say, it didn’t, he was wrong, like so many before him, and so many after.
While Camping’s beliefs sound ludicrous to most, whether they self identify as Christian or not, that doesn’t stop them from receiving wide recognition, if not acceptance. Look at any social networking service, Twitter, Facebook, whatever, and I’d bet dollars to donuts that you’ll see at least one status update or tweet about the world ending tomorrow. (For those of you on the other side of the international dateline… sucks to be you, you have until “6 pm” so hold your loved ones close. Or start drawing up plans for how to work the neighborhood for the most phat lewt you can scavenge from your Raptured natives.) It’s big time news, even if it isn’t actually believed by many. And it shouldn’t be believed. Honestly, we should probably feel pity for those who do believe this kind of nonsense.
So come Sunday, when the world is still here, and we’re all still on it (save those of us who died from something other than Jesus beaming them up to have, do not pass dead) and we collectively wipe away the crumbs from our eyelashes, and look bleary eyed at the credit card bills, and mortgage payments, and cell phone bills that still sit, languidly, waiting for you to process them, because, hey, why spend the money if the world WAS ending? Maybe we’ll be wise enough to recognize that Patrick Geryl and Nancy Lieder are no more qualified, no more accurate, than Harold Camping has ever been.

I can only hope that one woefully obviously inaccurate doomsday prediction will bring a shot of cynicism to those so eager to believe in messages of dire import from beyond our own star system, or that the Egyptians somehow held the key for deciphering the Maya(n) calendar despite being separated by an ocean and a lack of vessels capable of navigating it. If I’m wrong, if Harold Camping is right, well, that’s okay too. I’ve already got my own lewt map drawn up. Besides, somebody will have to stick around to take care of my cat. She couldn’t make it on her own. Shame on anybody who is Raptured that also owns a pet. Shame.
Top 5 2012 Scams and/or Scammers
Mar 14th
There are still people trapped by debris in Japan and snake oil salesmen are already lining up to claim this tragedy is proof for whatever brand of crazy they happen to be selling. This all too normal, all too natural tragedy is being cited as the beginning of the end by more than one group of people who have found a way to make their money off the end of the world. So we’re going to take a time to look at the ravenous ghouls who are all to willing to cash in on people’s fear and panic. With that said, let’s look at 5 of the biggest lies, or liars, trying to cash in on Dec 21, 2012.
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Patrick Geryl is the author of a number of books where he claims to explain the “impending disaster” using the “ancient secrets” of the Egyptians and Annunaki. Of course, this is utter bullshit. He’s selling books like they were iPods and using the profits to invest in a compound in Spain for himself and his followers. Or more likely, himself when Dec 22, 2012 rolls around and we’re all still here. He can just say “oops, must have been wrong” and retire to his mountainous Spanish villa. Poor guy.
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Nancy Lieder first gained notoriety when she declared that an alien intelligence from the Zeta Reticuli cluster had warned her of impending disaster for all of Earth. First, it was the Hale-Bopp comet hiding something terrible. Then it was the impending arrival of Planet X in 2003. When Planet X did not arrive, it took virtually no time at all for Ms Lieder to change the arrival date for Armageddon to one which already had some footing in the popular consciousness, the “end” of the Maya(n) calendar, 2012. I imagine once Dec 22nd arrives, she’ll just pick a new date for our doom, and continue to operate her website and sell her books until the day she dies, or the world ends. Guess which one I’d bet on happening first.
The Maya(n) Calendar is obviously an inanimate object (in the same way the Gregorian calendar is an “object.”). It can not control who claims it as evidence for their own particular theory of doom and profit. Be it Patrick Geryl, Nancy Lieder, or any number of random people on Youtube, more and more people are pointing to this amazing act of time keeping and astronomy as some kind of monster just waiting for the opportunity to bring ruin to us all. But that kind of thinking is based entirely on a flawed understanding of the Maya(n) culture, and their calendar. There are a number of artifacts that include dates pointing to the next “cycle,” which is to say, the Maya(n) did not think their calender “ended” on Dec 21, 2012.-
Planetary Alignment and/or Galactic Alignment, much like the Maya(n) calendar are both ideas that have been seized upon by multiple groups and multiple theories. These alignment claims usually assert that a rare astronomical event will occur that will imperil the Earth. Essentially there is nothing to them. NASA and the astronomy community at large point out that the described alignments either will not occur, or happen all the time over and over again. In short, there’s nothing to any claims of any kind of alignment of celestial bodies.
Prophecies, both biblical and those of people like Nostradamus, are also frequently cited by various 2012 theorists as proof of their theory. Their adherents will work feverishly to associate any real world event or tragedy with their prophecy of choice in an attempt to legitimize their own beliefs. Ultimately though, prophecies are easily fulfilled when one looks back on them from the future and has the luxury of including, or excluding, events for the sake of demonstrating the veracity of the prophecy. Nostradamus did not make any 2012 prophecy. Neither did the Maya(n) people or the Bible, actually. In fact, it’s hard to find a legitimate “2012 prophecy” that’s more than 20 or 30 years old.
There is no reason to worry about 2012. We have enough problems with managing our limited resources as is. Don’t be fooled by any of these lies, or the liars that use them. You have more important things to be concerned about.





