Critically examining the "End of the World"
Real Threats
What we should learn from the Gulf of Mexico Oil spill
Sep 13th
While the alleged Mayan Prophecy regarding 2012 is growing like wildfire in popular awareness there are far more serious threats that exist right now. When the mobile platform Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20th it was just the beginning of an event that will have significant impact on people’s everyday lives. For days the oil on the surface burned as emergency crews raced to try and contain as much of the oil as possible. But the trouble did not stop when the platform finally sank into the murky depths.
Thousands of barrels of oil and natural gas are presently escaping from the now unplugged well 5,000 ft below the surface. This crisis will not only have an impact on the Gulf coast environment, but on the global economy as well. Prices for oil are bound to increase as production is delayed indefinitely. At this point BP is hoping to have the well capped in the next week or two. If the past is any indication though, the leak may continue for another 6 weeks or more. The well is estimated to be leaking 1000 barrels of oil and natural gas per day. If it takes as long to contain this spell as it did to contain the Montara Well Head Platform leak in 2009 it is easily possible that more than 100,000 barrels of oil will spill into the waters of the Gulf.
While this is a small fraction of the planet’s capacity, it’s impact on future prices is still going to be felt. The US has a dwindling amount of domestic oil production and while this spill its self may not be that large (The US produces 5.4 million barrels per day) it will very likely have an impact on offshore drilling policy for years to come. This one incident alone may seem inconsequential, but when you look at a list of oil spills and eruptions you become aware of just how often tragedies like this actually occur. In fact, since 1980 Australia alone has had 20 significant off shore oil spills. That does not even begin to take into consideration events like the collision of the Exxon Valdez which resulted in 250000 barrels of oil ruining miles of pristine Alaskan shore line, killing wildlife and devastating the fishing economy and health of the local population.
While at it’s present rate it would take a full 8 months for the leak to match the devastating magnitude of the Valdez collision, the truth is that BP and the US are still not sure what to do with the current problem. Nobody expects the leak to go on for eight months, but nobody has ever had to face the challenges of sealing off an uncapped well at this depth before either. Currently they are trying a number of methods to stop the leaking ranging from activating an emergency seal (though at this point this is most likely not a viable option anymore) to actually building an underwater dome to help funnel the oil so it can be contained. The most permanent solution at this time is to drill another well, and use it to pump a chemical suppressant to the current leak and patch it.
Regardless of what solution eventually works, or how long it takes them to implement it, this is a reminder of what we should all really be afraid of. There is no reason to fear “celestial prophecies” and “End Times proclamations” when the truth is that commonplace accidents and the fallibility of human engineering have already placed our planet, and our population, on a precarious edge.
UPDATE
The initial estimate by BP for the rate of the leak of 1000 barrels per day is apparently grossly inaccurate. There is no firm number yet determined (it is easy to imagine the difficulty of “measuring” an oil leak 5000 ft below sea level) but guesses now seem to range from 5000 barrels a day all the way up to a potential million barrels per day. Remember that this spill will not only have a massive impact on the fishing industry (the price of Shrimp is about to skyrocket) but also the energy sector and even dish washing detergents. (Dawn dish washing detergent is a popular “dispersant” that is used when cleaning up oil spills. Some reports indicate that BP has purchased 1/3 of the planet’s current supply of dispersant agents to try and clean up this mess.) Also reports indicate one of the three leaking spots has been capped, however it does not seem to have slowed the over all rate of the leak at all.
The Lesson of Eyjafjallajokull
Aug 6th
Weeks ago the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull (the volcano in Iceland everybody was butchering the name of in the televised news) was international news. This slumbering volcano stirred and belched molten earth and ash into the skies. From there, winds and the jet stream spread this dangerous gaseous soup all over Europe, affecting weather patterns and international travel for days. It was almost impossible to get a flight in or out of Northern Europe at the time. Industry experts project the lost revenues caused by the initial eruption to be $1.7 billion or more. Some speculate it might have been bad enough to literally drive some European air carriers into bankruptcy.
But the eruption is not over. In recent days Ireland and Scotland have been struggling with another ash cloud which may soon, once again, influence larger segments of Europe. While some people might consider this a sign that “the Mayans were right” or as some kind of evidence of a foretold doomsday scenario unfolding before our eyes, I am confident in saying that is simply not true. What we are witnessing is a normal and natural geological process. The process by which the Earth’s mantle is replaced is well documented and easy to understand.
At fault lines and trenches, the crust of the Earth winds up being pushed down into the core. The deeper this material goes the more heat and pressure it is subjected to. Eventually this material is reduced into magma. Magma flows all around and through the planet in various concentrations and densities. Eventually, a local concentration of magma will reach a critical level and trigger a volcanic eruption. This is not a strange or mystical process. It does however seem to be basic geology that is somehow not learned during the course of most people’s elementary sciences.
There are volcanoes all over the world, both dormant and active. Unfortunately, a lack of funding has led to a woeful inability to monitor, track, and even understand the complicated systems involved in volcanic eruptions. It has been deemed more important to fund weapons systems than developing early warning capabilities that might, at the least, help us prepare for and work around volcanic eruptions. Do not think that such an investment would be fool hardy. Eyjafjallajokull is just a “normal” volcano and the impact it has had on Europe’s people and businesses is impossible to deny. The threat that ought to concern humanity lies in “super volcanoes.”
There are at present at least six known super volcanoes, three of them in North America alone. These volcanoes are so massive that if one were to erupt they would belch more than 240 cubic miles of ash, dirt, and magma into the sky. These are eruptions that are large enough to change weather patterns, block out the sun, and potentially even trigger new ice ages. There is currently no “real” way to “prepare” for the eruption of a super volcano. The best you can do is hope that they manage to release their pressure in smaller and less destructive ways (like geysers) than a full scale eruption.
The fact that we are so woefully unprepared to understand and predict, or possibly even prevent, catastrophic eruptions has nothing to do with it being “impossible.” It is instead the fault of people in positions of authority refusing to deal with such situations because it is considered a political liability with little to no reward. I cannot help but wonder what the people of New Orleans think about the decades of negligence on the part of local, state, and Federal officials to deal with the problem of their inadequate levies, preferring instead to “hope nothing bad would happen.”
The Japanese Earthquake: Real worries to consider
Mar 14th
It seems like everybody these days is talking about the earthquake in Japan, and with good reason. This was one of the largest earthquakes to be recorded in the area and its impact has been anything but minor. Not only was there damage from the initial seismic disturbance, but the following tsunami impacted coastal regions half way around the globe while devastating those closer to the epicenter.
There are all too many people crawling out of the woodwork to use this tragedy as proof of their own preferred “End of the World” scenario, and the worst part of such behavior is that it takes away precious energy that could be devoted to the real problems and questions that the Japanese earthquake has posed.
- People are in danger, and need help. While parts of Japan which were on the opposite side of the island, or inland, may be mostly intact, coastlines were ravaged and vital infrastructure has been compromised. Nuclear reactors are offline and countless people are without electricity. Rescue crews are still working constantly to dig through the rubble and debris for both victims and survivors. If you want to help, you can donate to the International Red Cross/Red Crescent here.
- Why is our ability to predict these events non-existent? It is no surprise to us anymore what causes earthquakes. When the energy stored along a fault line between tectonic plates exceeds a certain threshold, the plates grind and stutter against each other causing earthquakes and tsunamis. I understand that we have only had a standardized method of measuring these events for less than 100 years, but I personally can not help but ask if a few hundred million dollars spent on understanding our planet might have been better spent than an equivalent investment in bombs, or banker bailouts.
- How safe is nuclear energy, really? I will not deny being concerned about energy issues in general, and peak oil in particular. Nuclear energy has recently started regaining momentum as a possible solution since it was almost completely abandoned in the US after Three Mile Island. While there is plenty to fear from a meltdown, I get worried just trying to figure out what we’re supposed to do with the waste. I more than recognize the need to find sustainable energy, and quickly, but nuclear power is not a real solution to the problem.
We can learn a lot from the earthquake in Japan. We can face down serious questions about our energy. We can recognize that as much as we have learned in the last 100 years, we still have so much more to discover. Most importantly, we can learn that we are a durable and compassionate people capable of overcoming great adversity with the assistance of our fellow human beings.
Michael Ruppert Warns About Collapse
Mar 10th
Michael Ruppert is a smart man. Unlike most of our other “Doomsayers” Ruppert does not tie his concerns to arbitrary dates or ancient calendars. He does however tie them to a very specific event. He may not be able to determine exactly when that event will occur, but he’s got a lot of good reasons to think it will be soon. What Michael Ruppert is so worried about is peak oil, and you should be worried too.
Ruppert is an author and investigative journalist with several books
Here’s the trailer for his 2009 movie Collaspe.
This movie is terrifying, not because the information came from an alien intelligence, or because the calamity it discusses is some event out of ancient prophecy. Rather, what makes this film so frightening is its utter lack of such nonsense. It deals with nothing but facts as it analyzes some of the more unpleasant truths that haunt our modern energy addicted society. Honestly by the time I got to the end of this movie I was left wonder “what’s the point in caring?” While the information was certainly a “downer” I realized that wallowing in self pity is useless. Even if efforts to protect my self and my family are futile, I would rather try than do nothing. I may not be faster than that bear, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to be the slowest camper.
If you’re a member of Amazon Prime, you can watch the film for free
Peak Oil: What should really frighten you
Mar 10th
Image Courtesy: Flcelloguy at Wikipedia
Forget about Nibiru, Nostradamus, or the Maya(n) calendar ending on Dec 21 2012. None of those things is worth worrying about. Peak oil on the other hand should have you tossing and turning in your sheets with nightmarish visions of what might befall you, your children, your grandchildren, even the human race as a whole.
While experts have been debating for years and years about when peak oil might actually occur, the discussion will soon come to an end. At this point even Lloyd’s of London, who didn’t want to admit peak oil was a serious concern acknowledged in July that peak oil is no myth and might be here before we know it.
What exactly is peak oil? Well, peak oil will be the time when the global production capacity of oil reaches its all time high. That is not to say that new wells can not be drilled as old ones dry up. But that never again will there be as many wells able to produce as much at once. Essentially once peak oil has been reached, there will be less and less of it left everyday after until it is all gone.
A constantly dwindling supply of oil will have far more impact than just rising prices at the gas station though, Since oil became a viable fuel source in the early 20th century more and more of it was used to create our current way of life. The massive population explosion around the entire planet in the last century was literally fueled by oil. Oil is used in everything from rubber, to plastic, to pesticides. We use oil powered vehicles to harvest and transport crops to grocery stores. Oil is used to create sterile medical supplies like gloves and tool coverings. In short, the energy that supports six, almost seven billion people on this planet almost all comes from oil.
Image by Bryan Tong Minh
As time passes there will be less oil for things like plastic soda bottles. Gas will be rationed in order to make sure there is fuel to try and operate governments, armies, farm vehicles. The crops that will be harvested will be smaller due to insects and pest damage., There will be fewer and fewer markets within transportation range. Urban areas which rely on regular deliveries of food stuffs may face food shortages and eventual rioting as deliveries slow down and finally stop.
In short, if our society cannot break its addiction to oil we as a species are going to be facing some very very hard times. Mass famine, black outs, riots, wars, disease, it will be as if Pandora’s box was opened. Of course, there are ways to break your family’s reliance to this crude fossil fuel. By adopting conservation techniques, investing in alternative energy sources like windmills or solar cells, and developing a grocery garden that does not rely on petrochemical based pesticides or fertilizers you can insulate your family from the worst of the coming fire.
