While the alleged Mayan Prophecy regarding 2012 is growing like wildfire in popular awareness there are far more serious threats that exist right now. When the mobile platform Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20th it was just the beginning of an event that will have significant impact on people’s everyday lives. For days the oil on the surface burned as emergency crews raced to try and contain as much of the oil as possible. But the trouble did not stop when the platform finally sank into the murky depths.

Thousands of barrels of oil and natural gas are presently escaping from the now unplugged well 5,000 ft below the surface. This crisis will not only have an impact on the Gulf coast environment, but on the global economy as well. Prices for oil are bound to increase as production is delayed indefinitely. At this point BP is hoping to have the well capped in the next week or two. If the past is any indication though, the leak may continue for another 6 weeks or more. The well is estimated to be leaking 1000 barrels of oil and natural gas per day. If it takes as long to contain this spell as it did to contain the Montara Well Head Platform leak in 2009 it is easily possible that more than 100,000 barrels of oil will spill into the waters of the Gulf.

While this is a small fraction of the planet’s capacity, it’s impact on future prices is still going to be felt. The US has a dwindling amount of domestic oil production and while this spill its self may not be that large (The US produces 5.4 million barrels per day) it will very likely have an impact on offshore drilling policy for years to come. This one incident alone may seem inconsequential, but when you look at a list of oil spills and eruptions you become aware of just how often tragedies like this actually occur. In fact, since 1980 Australia alone has had 20 significant off shore oil spills. That does not even begin to take into consideration events like the collision of the Exxon Valdez which resulted in 250000 barrels of oil ruining miles of pristine Alaskan shore line, killing wildlife and devastating the fishing economy and health of the local population.

While at it’s present rate it would take a full 8 months for the leak to match the devastating magnitude of the Valdez collision, the truth is that BP and the US are still not sure what to do with the current problem. Nobody expects the leak to go on for eight months, but nobody has ever had to face the challenges of sealing off an uncapped well at this depth before either. Currently they are trying a number of methods to stop the leaking ranging from activating an emergency seal (though at this point this is most likely not a viable option anymore) to actually building an underwater dome to help funnel the oil so it can be contained. The most permanent solution at this time is to drill another well, and use it to pump a chemical suppressant to the current leak and patch it.

Regardless of what solution eventually works, or how long it takes them to implement it, this is a reminder of what we should all really be afraid of. There is no reason to fear “celestial prophecies” and “End Times proclamations” when the truth is that commonplace accidents and the fallibility of human engineering have already placed our planet, and our population, on a precarious edge.

UPDATE

The initial estimate by BP for the rate of the leak of 1000 barrels per day is apparently grossly inaccurate. There is no firm number yet determined (it is easy to imagine the difficulty of “measuring” an oil leak 5000 ft below sea level) but guesses now seem to range from 5000 barrels a day all the way up to a potential million barrels per day. Remember that this spill will not only have a massive impact on the fishing industry (the price of Shrimp is about to skyrocket) but also the energy sector and even dish washing detergents. (Dawn dish washing detergent is a popular “dispersant” that is used when cleaning up oil spills. Some reports indicate that BP has purchased 1/3 of the planet’s current supply of dispersant agents to try and clean up this mess.) Also reports indicate one of the three leaking spots has been capped, however it does not seem to have slowed the over all rate of the leak at all.




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